Where did Omicron Covid variant come from and where is it circulating?

LONDON — As extra circumstances of the brand new omicron Covid variant emerge around the globe, specialists say it is seemingly that the variant, first recognized in South Africa final week, had already been circulating for a while.

The World Well being Group stated on Wednesday that no less than 23 international locations from 5 of the six WHO areas have now reported circumstances of omicron, “and we anticipate that quantity to develop.”

The U.S. then grew to become the twenty fourth nation to verify its first case of omicron. It was detected in a completely vaccinated particular person in California, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention confirmed on Wednesday. A second U.S. case was recognized in a Minnesota man who developed signs after coming back from New York Metropolis the place he attended a conference from Nov. 19-21, Minnesota well being officers stated Thursday. He was additionally absolutely vaccinated and has since recovered, they stated.

Different international locations which have recognized the variant the U.Ok., France, Israel, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong and quite a few international locations in southern Africa.

The U.S., U.Ok. and EU, amongst others, responded to information of the variant final week by briefly suspending flights from southern African international locations, or introducing strict quarantines on anybody arriving from the area.

The transfer sparked anger in South Africa and has prompted criticism from the WHO, which stated on Wednesday that such reactions may deter international locations which sequence and report virus variants (just like the U.Ok. and South Africa, the place main Covid variants have been discovered) from being clear in future.

The omicron variant, or B.1.1.529 because it’s formally identified, was first reported to the WHO from South Africa on Nov. 24. The primary identified pattern dated again to Nov. 9.

However there at the moment are rising indicators that the variant was in circulation in different international locations earlier than South Africa’s well being authorities alerted the world to its presence. There are a rising variety of circumstances being found with no journey connection to the area, suggesting neighborhood transmission is going down.

In Scotland within the U.Ok., for instance, 9 circumstances have been detected which have been traced again to a “single non-public occasion” held on Nov. 20 and not one of the people concerned are believed to have any current journey historical past to southern Africa.

Then, on Tuesday, the Netherlands stated it had recognized the omicron variant in two take a look at samples taken within the nation between Nov. 19 and 23 — earlier than the variant was first reported by South Africa and journey bans got here into place. It was initially believed that two flights that arrived in Amsterdam from South Africa final Sunday had introduced the primary circumstances of omicron to the nation (there at the moment are 14 confirmed circumstances in all).

On Tuesday, Germany additionally reported an omicron case in a person in Liepzig who had not been overseas, nor had contact with anybody who had been.

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Affiliation and the physician who first raised the alarm over a attainable variant, advised the BBC Sunday that she did so after she began to see sufferers round Nov.18 presenting with “uncommon signs” that differed barely to these related to the delta variant, probably the most virulent pressure of the virus so far.

In the meantime Botswana, one of many international locations affected by Western journey bans within the wake of the variant, stated final Friday that it first detected the variant on 4 international nationals who entered the nation on a diplomatic mission on Nov. 7 (once more, far sooner than it was reported by South Africa) as a part of its common Covid surveillance. It didn’t determine the international nationals’ house nation.

At a press briefing held by WHO’s Africa workplace on Thursday, the UN company’s regional specialists advised CNBC that the origin of the omicron variant was unknown, they usually criticized restrictive journey measures positioned on southern African international locations.

“Our surveillance system within the international world isn’t excellent but,” Dr Abdou Salam Gueye, regional emergency director in WHO’s Africa workplace, advised CNBC Thursday throughout a press briefing.

“After we detect a variant or virus … normally we will detect it weeks after it began its evolution. The one factor we’re positive about, when a rustic detects a virus, is that that nation’s surveillance system is sweet. That is what occurred in southern Africa, so this discourages the journey ban much more as a result of … it is sort of a measure towards a great surveillance system.”

He added that it was “not surprising” that circumstances had been now being found in Europe.

“It is solely [with] the investigations which are being performed that we will know extra concerning the origins of this virus,” he added.

His colleague, Dr Nicksy Gumede-Moeletsi, a senior virologist in WHO’s Africa workplace, advised CNBC that the variety of international locations reporting the omicron variant was rising every day.

“It appears that almost all of those international locations which are [reporting omicron cases] now … are coming from overseas slightly than right here in Africa, so we do not know the place it began and we’d like excellent scientific proof to review the molecular evolution of the omicron variant additional.”

Specialists based mostly in Europe are inclined to agree that omicron has seemingly been circulating for longer, and extra broadly, than initially thought.

“The origin of Omicron continues to be unknown, together with the situation the place it first unfold,” Moritz Kraemer, lead researcher on the Oxford Martin Programme on Pandemic Genomics at Oxford College, advised CNBC Thursday.

“That partially is because of restricted sequencing protection and surveillance in some international locations” he famous, including that South Africa has a properly established system of genomic surveillance.

“I personally don’t suppose there was large undetected circulation for a really very long time,” Kraemer stated. Nevertheless he added that he expects the variety of international locations with imported and native transmission of omicron to be a lot bigger than reported.

Specialists are broadly anticipating this variant to unfold rapidly given early indications from South Africa, the place 74% of virus genomes sequenced within the final month belonged to the brand new variant.

Lawrence Younger, professor of molecular oncology at Warwick College, advised CNBC Wednesday that “it is no shock that omicron has been circulating extra broadly and for longer than has been reported beforehand.”

“As soon as a variant is recognized, significantly one that’s more likely to be extra infectious, it would have unfold far past the few authentic circumstances and international locations. That is the character of infectious illness in a world the place worldwide journey is so widespread,” he stated.

Some epidemiologists have speculated that the omicron variant may have began to unfold internationally across the finish of October, a speculation agreed with by different specialists spoken to by CNBC.

Paul Hunter, professor of medication on the Norwich Faculty of Drugs on the College of East Anglia, advised CNBC Wednesday that, given the earliest identified omicron pattern was taken on Nov.9 in South Africa, “clearly the an infection should have been circulating a little bit earlier than that until the index case was the particular person in whom the variant developed, however most likely not a lot earlier.”

Whereas Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial School London, stated he’d “definitely agree it is a chance” that the omicron variant was spreading sooner than November, and that there was no certainty it originate in South Africa.

“The purpose that it got here to consideration by way of rising circumstances and glorious sequencing round Gauteng [in South Africa] from the second week of November neither proves it arose close to there or that this was the place to begin.”

Correction: This story has been up to date to mirror that the primary U.S. case of the omicron variant was detected in California.