In soccer, you need seven and never three (or zero). Touchdowns are the aim. Subject objectives are the comfort prize. And, yeah, this outdated adage ought to in all probability be up to date to wanting eight and never three, since two-point conversions are extra en vogue than ever earlier than.
However you get the concept.
One would assume that the groups that rating essentially the most touchdowns and quit the fewest touchdowns would have the perfect shot of successful all of it, or a minimum of advantage robust consideration. Actually, there are different metrics – like turnover ratio, or differential between passer rankings or variety of starters out for the season – that one may flip to as a predictor of success. However internet touchdowns looks as if a fairly good place to start out.
We’re all the time in search of methods to quantify groups or assess how a lot luck or luck or defying the percentages has gone right into a workforce’s general file. Are there some groups that in all probability deserve a greater or worse file? I am not sensible sufficient or mathematically inclined sufficient to fake I’ve a solution to that query, however I did discover spending time learning the landing differentials to make for attention-grabbing fodder, as one ponders the stretch run of the season in making an attempt to type out a jumbled pile of groups in every convention at a time when outcomes appear extra unpredictable than ever.
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For example, if the playoffs began proper now, the Ravens can be the highest seed within the AFC. Nevertheless, they rank simply tenth in that convention in internet touchdowns. Baltimore (8-3) has truly yielded two extra touchdowns than it has scored, whereas Miami (5-7), which appeared left for useless throughout a seven-game shedding streak, is definitely solely simply behind the Ravens at -3. Oh, and the Dolphins did beat the Ravens only a few weeks again and have strung collectively 4 straight wins.
Kinda reveals you ways shut the margins are and the way wacky this sport may be.
However I additionally imagine it’s telling. The Ravens are usually not an elite workforce on offense or protection (the workforce dashing totals look gaudy however they’re propelled by off-script runs by the quarterback; the operating backs themselves have been largely effectively under league common). It took an officiating error and the longest area aim in NFL historical past for the Ravens to beat the winless Lions, they escaped the Browns final week regardless of 4 turnovers, they usually surrender as many large performs as any workforce within the NFL. It will appear that they’re considerably out-performing the Pythagorean panorama with their present seed being 9 spots above the place they sit in AFC internet touchdowns.
Listed below are the highest 10 in AFC TD differential:
1. Buffalo +18
2. New England +13
3. Cincinnati +12
4. Indianapolis +5
5. Kansas Metropolis, Tennessee +4
7. Denver +2
8. L.A. Chargers +1
9. Baltimore -2
10. Miami, Cleveland -3
In case you are bullish on the Colts – and I’m – and imagine they’re higher than their file, this would possibly present some proof. Additionally consider that Indianapolis has a 5-3 file inside the convention, with some weak AFC South foes nonetheless to play, and you’ll construct a case for them within the postseason.
Within the NFC, there are few attention-grabbing issues to glean from this metric as effectively. The Eagles ought to have received on Sunday – they dominated the Giants however succumbed to drops, turnovers and odd red-zone play calling – and seemed like they may have a run in them as effectively with their dominant run sport and enhancing protection. They do carry a + 2 TD differential on the season, and I imagine they’re in all probability higher than their 5-7 file.
Regardless of being ravaged by accidents to so many key positions, the Saints rank a shocking fourth within the NFC with a +7 differential. If they’ll get a bit of more healthy and get something extra out of the quarterback place, can they make a run regardless of being 5-6? I would not rule them out. And the truth that two groups in the identical division – Atlanta and New Orleans – have the identical file (5-6), whereas one is +7 and the opposite is -14, strikes me as weird.
The one NFC groups with a better internet landing rating than the Saints are the Cardinals and Bucs (+15) and the Cowboys (+12). I additionally discover it noteworthy that whereas it seems the Packers (9-3) will run away with the NFC North, the Vikings (5-6) are at +2 and Inexperienced Bay is simply +3. Minnesota did beat them a number of weeks in the past, and the Vikings are a workforce that repeatedly finds methods to in some way lose video games, as evidenced right here.
The depth general inside the AFC appears pretty staggering. How about 12 groups with a file of .500 or higher this late within the season, and 4 which can be a mixed 12-34? And fairly quickly Miami may also make it up the .500 stage as effectively.
All of the AFC North groups are above .500; these groups are a mixed 10-4-1 towards the NFC. The AFC West additionally doesn’t have a sub-.500 workforce; that division is 11-5 towards the NFC. And the three backside groups within the AFC – with a mixed seven wins – have a complete of 4 wins over successful groups (the Titans are chargeable for two of these losses – to the Jets and Texans).
With the added week of video games, the playoff chase might be extra bonkers than ever. A New England win on Monday towards Buffalo would put the Pats 7-1 inside the AFC, far and away the perfect mark inside that convention. The Bengals are subsequent greatest at 5-2, and a win over the Chargers would put them in nice place to nab one of many playoff spots as effectively.
And with so many divisional video games to be performed, we’re undoubtedly headed for extra twists and turns. The Ravens and Chiefs, as an example, have every performed simply two video games inside their division, and each workforce within the AFC has a minimum of two divisional video games but to be performed.
Buckle up. It must be nuts.
