And similar to that, we have reached the end line of the 2021 common season. We’ve only one full slate left in entrance of us in Week 18 after which we’ll flip our consideration to the playoffs. This closing week of the common season is usually essentially the most tough slate to attempt to choose as varied groups that have already got a postseason spot locked up will choose to relaxation gamers as an alternative of transferring forward full steam, so it does deliver an added layer to account for.
Naturally, we’ll wish to finish the season on a excessive be aware in our picks division and proceed to construct on what has been a productive season. Final week, we hit three of our 5 locks of the week and whereas we had been .500 with our ATS picks as a complete, we did sport a strong 12-4 ML file. We’ll look to do higher than break even with our ATS picks in Week 18, beginning with our 5 locks of the week.
2021 file
Locks of the Week ATS: 49-32-4
ATS: 126-126-4
ML: 161-94-1
Newest Odds:
New England Patriots
-6.5
The Patriots nonetheless have an opportunity at successful the AFC East and an out of doors shot at leaping again up because the No. 1 seed, however that may require a win on Sunday in Miami. So even with a playoff spot already clinched, New England will probably nonetheless be transferring at full pace. In the meantime, Miami’s seven-game successful streak did exit with a whimper final week as they managed simply three factors in a loss to Tennessee. Whenever you regarded just a little deeper on the streak, the Dolphins had been dealing with fairly tender competitors, so it wasn’t too stunning to see a real playoff staff take them down. That what they will see once more in Week 18 within the Patriots and you’ll even make the case that Invoice Belichick’s staff is a harder foe as they personal the No. 2 protection in DVOA within the NFL. The Patriots are additionally 4-1 ATS of their final 5 street video games.
Projected rating: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20
The choose: Patriots -6.5
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Newest Odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-8
Whereas the No. 1 seed is formally out of attain for the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay nonetheless has a path to leap to the No. 2 seed, which actually nonetheless holds significance, albeit not as a lot as a first-round bye with the highest spot. Solidifying home-field by way of the divisional spherical should not be one thing this staff overlooks as they have been super at Raymond James Stadium this season. With that in thoughts, Bruce Arians needs to be rolling his staff out at full steam towards a lowly Panthers squad that’s 0-6 ATS in its final six video games coming into Sunday. In the meantime, Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its final six dwelling video games.
Projected rating: Buccaneers 33, Panthers 17
The choose: Buccaneers -8
Newest Odds:
Los Angeles Rams
-4.5
San Francisco has traditionally had the Rams’ quantity beneath Kyle Shanahan, however I do not consider that would be the case this go round largely due to the quarterback scenario for the Niners. Trey Lance nonetheless seems a bit too inexperienced to be duking it out towards a staff like L.A. and even when Jimmy Garoppolo does play he’ll be doing so with an injured thumb. Whereas the 23-7 closing rating in final week’s win over the Texans might point out a giant win for San Fran, that was merely a field-goal sport coming into the fourth quarter, so this offense beneath Lance is hardly a completed product. As for the Rams, they want a win to safe the NFC West, so that they’ll be firing on all cylinders and are 4-1 ATS in its final 5 video games.
Projected rating: Rams 27, 49ers 21
The choose: Rams -4.5
Newest Odds:
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
-10
The Chiefs fell out because the No. 1 seed within the AFC final week with their loss to the Bengals however can leap again into that spot with a win on Saturday together with a loss by Tennessee on Sunday. With that system again to the highest spot within the convention fairly simple, Andy Reid might not relaxation his stars and as an alternative attempt to safe the win and provides his staff a shot at leaping again up the standings. As for Denver, they’re merely taking part in out the string could be doing so with a third-string quarterback as Drew Lock suffered a shoulder damage final week and Teddy Bridgewater nonetheless coping with a concussion. Even when Lock does play, he will not be 100%, which provides Okay.C. — who’s 6-1 ATS over its final seven video games — an incredible alternative to clear this double-digit unfold.
Projected rating: Chiefs 28, Broncos 17
The choose: Chiefs -10
Newest Odds:
New York Jets
+16
We had been proper in our assumption final week on the Payments as they didn’t cowl towards the Falcons and we’re doubling down on that right here in Week 18. New York has proven some flashes over the ultimate few weeks of the yr and almost took down the Buccaneers final week. The Payments can be going all-out on this sport to attempt to safe the AFC East title, however I feel the Jets make this surprisingly shut. In any case, the Payments are 3-3-2 ATS at dwelling this season with a mean margin of victory sitting at slightly below 9 factors. Josh Allen has additionally statistically been a worse quarterback at dwelling this season than on the street. His completion proportion is roughly 7% decrease at dwelling than on the street and his passer ranking is almost 14 factors decrease. He additionally threw three picks at Highmark Stadium final week.
Projected rating: Payments 30, Jets 17
The choose: Jets +16.5
Remainder of the bunch
Cowboys at Eagles
Projected rating: Cowboys 27, Eagles 21
The choose: Eagles +7
Bengals at Browns
Projected rating: Bengals 24, Browns 20
The choose: Bengals -3
Packers at Lions
Projected rating: Packers 24, Lions 21
The choose: Packers -2.5
Bears at Vikings
Projected rating: Vikings 27, Bears 23
The choose: Vikings -2.5
Washington at Giants
Projected rating: Washington 24, Giants 14
The choose: Washington -7
Colts at Jaguars
Projected rating: Colts 33, Jaguars 14
The choose: Colts -15.5
Steelers at Ravens
Projected rating: Ravens 27, Steelers 21
The choose: Ravens -5.5
Titans at Texans
Projected rating: Titans 28, Texans 20
The choose: Texans +10.5
Saints at Falcons
Projected rating: Falcons 23, Saints 21
The choose: Falcons +4
Seahawks at Cardinals
Projected rating: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24
The choose: Seahawks +6.5
Chargers at Raiders
Projected rating: Chargers 28, Raiders 24
The choose: Chargers -3
