I am undecided how a lot meals I ate over Thanksgiving Weekend, however I am fairly positive I gained roughly 17 kilos, which is sort of a coincidence, as a result of I feel that is additionally what number of picks I acquired unsuitable in Week 12. Certain, there weren’t even 17 video games performed and the maths does not add up in any respect, however whenever you eat turkey for 5 meals a day for 5 straight days, nothing is smart.
The one excellent news to come back out of the weekend for me is that I did not catch COVID, however sadly, the identical cannot be stated for the Cowboys. The group is coping with a mini-COVID outbreak, which goes to maintain Mike McCarthy from teaching on Thursday after he examined optimistic.
Apparently, COVID went after everybody over Thanksgiving, as a result of there are going to be numerous key gamers lacking from numerous groups this week.
If my picks are unhealthy this week, I blame COVID.
Alright, let’s get to the Week 13 picks.
Truly, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder you can try the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL skilled by clicking right here. When you do not click on over, I will not be offended. Nonetheless, I will probably be offended in case you do not join CBSSports.com’s NFL e-newsletter, which I am accountable for.
When you do enroll, it is like an early Christmas current for each of us: I get extra sign-ups and also you get an e mail from me 5 days per week, which suggests signing up is admittedly like 5 presents in a single. If you wish to subscribe, all you must do is click on right here and enter your e mail tackle. I promise to not spam you and I promise to not ship you photos of my cat.
Additionally, I would love you guys to know that I recorded a podcast on Monday night time with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson and we spent 45 extremely entertaining minutes debating whether or not the Seahawks ought to take into consideration blowing issues up and beginning over. Russell Wilson desires out. Pete Carroll is on the unsuitable facet of 70. And it simply feels prefer it is perhaps time for the transfer on to the following chapter. If you wish to pay attention, and also you positively ought to, you are able to do that under.
Alright, let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 13 Picks
L.A. Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati (7-4)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Newest Odds:
Cincinnati Bengals
-3
We’re 13 weeks into the season and I’ve to confess, I nonetheless do not know what to make of the Chargers. Each time you assume the Chargers are about to show the nook and turn into a Tremendous Bowl contender, they exit and fall flat on their face. If they’d overwhelmed the Broncos on Sunday, they’d have been in first place heading into Week 13, however as a substitute, they acquired embarrassed. I additionally acquired embarrassed as a result of I picked them to win.
The Chargers began the season 4-1, however they’re simply 2-4 since then. I am not precisely positive why the Chargers have fallen aside over the previous few weeks, however my principal working idea is that it is as a result of they’re the Chargers and falling aside is what they do.
One purpose they’re falling aside is as a result of they cannot cease the run. I now know why Chargers coach Brandon Staley goes for it on a regular basis on fourth down and it is clearly as a result of he desires to do all the things doable to ensure his protection does not ever get on the sphere, as a result of in the event that they’re on the sphere, that implies that Chargers are in all probability going to lose. By means of 12 weeks, the Chargers are surrendering 145.3 dashing yards per recreation, which is ridiculously unhealthy when you think about that no different crew within the NFL is even surrendering 136 yards per recreation. In terms of having a nasty run protection, the Chargers are one of the best within the NFL, besides being one of the best right here really means you are the worst, so it is not likely one thing you need to brag about.
If the Bengals are good, they will simply give the ball to Joe Mixon 47 instances on this recreation. I actually need to decide the Bengals right here…. Nonetheless, I’m barely fearful about selecting in opposition to the Chargers and that is as a result of that is an odd-numbered week and the Chargers NEVER lose in odd-numbered weeks. For some purpose, they neglect the right way to play soccer throughout even-numbered weeks, however throughout odd numbered-weeks, they’re the 1985 Bears.
In odd week video games this season, the Chargers are 5-0 whereas averaging 33.0 factors per recreation. Nonetheless, in even week video games, they’re 1-5 with a median of 18 factors per recreation. It is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Truly, I take that again, it is extra just like the “Quick and the Livid” motion pictures. As somebody who has seen each “Quick and the Livid” film not less than 19 instances, I can inform you for a truth that each one the odd-numbered motion pictures are good and all of the even-numbered ones are horrible, which principally sums up the Chargers whole 2021 season to this point. I am beginning to assume the Chargers may need to have a “Quick and the Livid” marathon or one thing in the event that they need to finish this even-number week curse. By the best way, in case you’ve by no means seen a “Quick and Livid” film, I like to recommend beginning with the fifth one as a result of it is the one one I am in.
The Chargers are 5-0 in odd weeks, the Bengals are presently the fifth-seed within the AFC playoffs and I used to be in “Quick 5.” I am beginning to really feel like 5 is a theme right here, so I will take the Bengals by 5 in a recreation that is fittingly being performed on December 5.
The decide: Bengals 31-26 over Chargers.
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Washington (5-6) at Las Vegas (6-5)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Newest Odds:
Las Vegas Raiders
-2.5
We’re 13 weeks into the season and I’ve to confess, I nonetheless do not know what I am doing in the case of selecting Washington’s video games. They’ve performed 11 video games and to this point, I am 3-8 selecting these video games. In terms of selecting Washington video games, it does not matter who they’re enjoying, it does not matter who’s favored to win, it doesn’t matter what I decide, the alternative goes to occur. if I decide them to win, they will lose. If I decide them to lose they will win. Nonetheless, I’ve a secret weapon this week and that weapon is a magic coin.
Earlier than the 2021 season started, somebody on Reddit determined to simulate the Raiders whole season by flipping a coin to find out the winner of every recreation and all I’ve to say is that this coin is healthier at predicting video games than I’m. By means of 12 weeks, the coin is an ideal 11-0 predicting Raiders’ video games.
My private document selecting Raiders’ video games this yr is 5-6, so clearly I am in no place to be doubting what the coin says and the coin says the Raiders are going to win. The coin picked the Raiders to beat the Cowboys and now it’s selecting the Raiders to beat Washington.
That being stated, if the Raiders do not win, we are able to go forward and blame me. In terms of selecting Washington video games, I am virtually at all times unsuitable so there is a 50% probability that I will jinx the magical coin out of existence by selecting the Raiders right here.
For the document, if the coin did not exist, I in all probability would nonetheless go together with the Raiders right here. They’re averaging 296.5 yards by the air this yr, which is the second most within the NFL they usually’ll be going up in opposition to a Washington protection that may’t cease the go. Additionally, Washington is 0-4 in opposition to AFC groups this yr and I am beginning to assume they only cannot beat any crew from that convention.
If the Raiders do win and coin finally ends up being proper once more, they need to actually give some critical thought of probably hiring the coin as their subsequent coach.
The decide: Raiders 30-23 over Washington. All hail the coin.
Baltimore (8-3) at Pittsburgh (5-5-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Newest Odds:
Baltimore Ravens
-4.5
I will be trustworthy right here, I do not know what to make of this recreation. On one hand, you’ve got the Steelers, who I am fairly positive gave up about halfway by the third quarter in opposition to the Bengals on Sunday. The Steelers used to have a vaunted protection, however I do not assume it qualifies as vaunted anymore after giving up 41 factors in EACH of the previous two weeks.
As for the Ravens, they are going into Sunday after every week the place Lamar Jackson performed arguably the worst recreation of his profession. Jackson was downright terrible in opposition to the Browns, however the Ravens have been nonetheless in a position to win as a result of the Browns determined to begin a quarterback who principally has the identical quantity of accidents as somebody who was simply hit by a bus. The one factor that is been worse than the Steelers protection over the previous few weeks is the Ravens offense.
Over their previous three video games, the Ravens have averaged simply 14 factors per recreation. The Ravens offense has progressively been getting worse since Week 10 when Baltimore acquired blown out by the Dolphins, who determined to blitz Lamar on practically each play. That does not imply the Steelers are going to try this, nevertheless it does imply that Mike Tomlin will in all probability implement a few of that into his defensive recreation plan.
At 5-5-1, the Steelers season principally hangs within the stability this week. In the event that they lose, they’re positively not successful the AFC North they usually’re possible not making the playoffs. I don’t like to select in opposition to determined groups, particularly once they’re enjoying at dwelling in opposition to a division rival. The Steelers are one in every of solely two groups within the NFL that Lamar Jackson does not have a successful document in opposition to — he is 1-1 — and I do not assume that is going to alter after this week.
The decide: Steelers 19-16 over Ravens.
New England (8-4) at Buffalo (7-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Newest Odds:
Buffalo Payments
-2.5
Based mostly on what I learn about Payments followers, there is a 97% probability that this Monday goes to go down because the top-selling day ever within the historical past of the folding desk trade. This is among the greatest common season video games that the Payments have ever hosted and you may guess that Payments followers are going to reply appropriately by spending their day leaping by folding tables which were set on hearth.
Not solely will first place within the AFC East be on the road on this recreation, however this can even mark the FIRST TIME in franchise historical past that the Payments have hosted a Monday night time recreation within the month of December. I am guessing the Payments did not get any earlier than this as a result of the NFL possible assumed that people could not survive exterior for greater than 9 seconds throughout a December night time in Buffalo, which is a good assumption.
These two groups met on a December Monday night time in New England final yr and the Payments ended up utterly destroying the Patriots 38-9, which in hindsight may need been a nasty concept, as a result of now, I really feel like Invoice Belichick would love nothing greater than to completely embarrass the Payments on nationwide tv, and if anybody can completely embarrass the Payments, it is Belichick. The person has principally made a profession out of embarrassing the Payments.
Over the previous 15 years, Belichick is 25-5 in opposition to Buffalo. Though the Patriots acquired swept final yr, they nonetheless virtually pulled off an upset of their first assembly with the Payments, which was a 24-21 Buffalo win. Even in the midst of an enormous rebuild, Belichick virtually beat the Payments. When the Patriots went on their large free agent spending spree through the offseason, I am 99% positive that each transfer they made was finished with the only objective of guaranteeing that they’d be capable to destroy the Payments this yr.
I do not assume they will destroy the Payments on Monday night time, however I do assume Belichick goes to depart Buffalo with a win.
The decide: Patriots 23-20 over Payments.
NFL Week 13 picks: All the remaining
Cowboys 24-17 over Saints
Buccaneers 34-24 over Falcons
Cardinals 27-17 over Bears
Vikings 23-16 over Lions
Dolphins 30-20 over Giants
Eagles 27-20 over Jets
Colts 31-17 over Texans
Rams 27-16 over Jaguars
49ers 31-24 over Seahawks
Chiefs 30-17 over Broncos
BYES: Browns, Titans, Packers, Panthers
Final Week
Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that the Packers would upset the Rams in Inexperienced Bay and guess what occurred? The Packers upset the Rams in Inexperienced Bay, which was essentially the most predictable recreation ever. If hundreds of years of human civilization has taught us one factor, it is that individuals who do not dwell in chilly climate hate chilly climate. Additionally, individuals who dwell in California hate touring to anywhere that is not California. While you mix these two issues with the truth that Matthew Stafford has all of a sudden was a pick-six machine, there was no manner the Rams have been successful. When you’re questioning how unhealthy the pick-sixes have gotten with Stafford, he now has the longest pick-six streak of any quarterback since 2013 and he is additionally now thrown the sixth-most pick-sixes in NFL historical past (26).
Worst decide: I used to be enthusiastic about taking a trip to Florida subsequent yr, however not now, as a result of I HATE FLORIDA after what occurred to me in Week 12. There are three NFL groups situated in Florida and I whiffed on each single one in every of their video games. I picked the Colts to beat the Buccaneers. I picked the Jaguars to beat the Falcons and I picked the Panthers to beat the Dolphins. None of these issues occurred. My picks have been so unhealthy that I will not be shocked if I get banned from the complete state for the remainder of my life. My 19-month outdated daughter will in all probability be unhappy that we’ll by no means get to go to Disney World, however when she hears how unhealthy my picks have been, she’ll perceive.
Lastly, in case you guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at selecting, here is a fast look:
Groups I am 9-2 selecting this yr: Texans, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Steelers (8-2-1), Colts (10-2)
Longest present streak of selecting a crew’s video games appropriately: Steelers (8-0-1 since Week 3)
Groups I have been the worst at selecting this yr: Saints (3-8), Washington (3-8).
Longest energetic streak of selecting a crew’s video games unsuitable: Broncos (0-6 since Week 6 after going 5-0 selecting their video games to begin the season)
Picks Report
Straight up in Week 12: 7-8 (0-3 selecting Florida groups, 7-5 selecting everybody else)
SU total: 108-71-1
In opposition to the unfold in Week 12: 6-9
ATS total: 87-90-3
Actual rating predictions: 3
Actual rating, unsuitable winner: 2
You will discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability watching Quick 5 for the forty seventh time this week.
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